Growth isn’t broken, it is simply harder.

Data from the first half of 2025 tells a clear story. Ad spend is up 27.24%. Conversion value grew only 20.22%. Customer acquisition costs increased 11.7%. New customer revenue fell from 57% to 52%.

Black Friday Cyber Monday 2025 Trends

Several trends are shaping this year’s Black Friday / Cyber Monday (BFCM) landscape:

• Rising costs across all channels. CPMs and CPAs are climbing, meaning ads are more expensive, and efficiency is declining.
• Shifting customer behavior. New customer acquisition is more costly and slower, while existing customers are becoming a critical source of revenue.
• Platform divergence. Meta, TikTok, and Google now perform very differently. What worked last year may not work this year, so campaigns must be platform-specific and data-driven.
• Intensifying competition. Consumers are more selective, and attention is harder to capture. Brands must stand out with creative, timely, and targeted messaging.

Where To Focus Your Efforts

Meta

Meta remains powerful, even with higher media costs. In the first half of fiscal 2025, Meta’s conversion value rose 36.77% and ROAS increased, while CPMs climbed, indicating that strong targeting and creative still prevail.

Our recommendation? Build segments by recency, frequency, and monetary value, simplify the structure, and scale creative output so that fatigue does not drag down performance.

Google

Search is showing efficiency pressure this year. Spend is up, conversion value has barely grown, ROAS has declined, and CPA has risen.

Our recommendation? Treat Google as a surgical tool. Focus on bottom-of-funnel intent, brand defense, and strict cost controls, with dayparting and automated rules ready to pause overspending.

TikTok

TikTok is the bright spot in terms of cost and AOV. CPMs decreased, ROAS improved, and AOV increased, making TikTok a smart choice for diversification.

Our advice? Create platform native vertical video, use Spark Ads, and lean into broad discovery with strong hooks and authentic UGC.

Strategic Moves That Matter

Brands that succeed in 2025 will approach BFCM with a mindset that balances efficiency and profitability. Here are the key principles:

• Retention is a growth engine. Existing customers drove nearly 50% of revenue in H1 2025, up from 43% in 2024. VIP experiences, early access campaigns, and loyalty programs make your brand a first choice for repeat purchases.
• Prioritize high-value acquisition. With CPAs on the rise, targeting the right prospects is more important than ever. Use data from previous buyers to build lookalike audiences, focus on products with high repeat rates, and measure success over months, not just during the BFCM weekend.
• Creative velocity wins attention. Rotating three to four times your usual creative volume reduces ad fatigue and keeps messaging fresh. Use static, video, UGC, and carousel formats tailored to specific audience segments.
• Platform-specific strategies pay off. Meta remains strong with high conversion potential, but comes at a cost. Google requires precision targeting and strict cost control. TikTok offers lower CPMs and higher AOV, making it ideal for discovery campaigns.

Leverage cross-channel integration. Paid ads, email, and SMS should work together, not in isolation. Synced messaging ensures customers experience one cohesive story, improving conversion and retention.

Our Advice

Navigating BFCM 2025 requires more than simply increasing ad spend. The landscape is changing. Efficiency is declining, customer acquisition is more expensive, and competition for attention is fiercer than ever.

Brands that treat this season as a short-term sprint risk wasting budget and missing opportunities. Instead, success comes from a thoughtful, data-informed approach that balances acquisition, retention, and margin protection.

To thrive, brands need practical, actionable steps that translate insights into results. The following tactics focus on smart segmentation, creative execution, pricing strategies, and cross-channel coordination. These strategies are designed to help your campaigns perform efficiently, capture high-value customers, and maximize revenue while keeping costs under control.

• Segment customers wisely. Use RFM (recency, frequency, monetary) segmentation to deliver targeted messages: VIPs get loyalty offers, big spenders get win-back campaigns, new customers receive onboarding sequences.
• Optimize pricing and bundles. Dynamic pricing, post-purchase upsells, and bundled offers increase average order value while protecting margins.
• Use AI where it matters. AI can spot winning creatives, monitor anomalies, and provide real-time recommendations, allowing teams to act fast and maintain ROI.
• Plan ahead. Start customer segmentation, loyalty programs, and creative production well before October. Early preparation allows testing, optimization, and fewer surprises during peak traffic.

The Bottom Line on Black Friday and Cyber Monday 2025

BFCM 2025 will not reward guesswork or last-minute spending. Efficiency is declining, customer expectations are rising, and competition is fierce. Brands that invest in early planning, retention-first strategies, targeted acquisition, and creative execution will capture attention and revenue while protecting margins.

At Excite, we help our clients engage audiences, empower teams, and excite customers with strategies that drive real results. Black Friday and Cyber Monday are no longer just shopping days. They are opportunities to build lasting customer relationships and maximize profitability.

Need help implementing your strategies for Black Friday and Cyber Monday 2025? Contact us for a complimentary consultation.